[tor-talk] Tech Report on Tor Growth [pdf]

[Virgil Griffith]

I will look at the "read bandwidth" data to see whether these sites going
down was the primary cause.  But first impression it looks like that on
those dates "read bandwidth" went down as well as "advertised bandwidth"
went up.

-V

On Saturday, October 4, 2014, Mirimir <mirimir at riseup.net> wrote:

> On 10/04/2014 05:57 PM, Virgil Griffith wrote:
> > I hereby submit the following PDF as a Tor Tech Report.
> >
> > http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3308162/tor%20growth.pdf
> >
> > I'll be providing the various raw data files to github/torproject
> shortly.
> >
> > Qualitative conclusions are the same.  The methodology is more
> > rigorous than it was before, some quantitative differences.  Most
> > notably:
> > * Lots of stuff in Tor increases exponentially.
> > * Absolute Torperf is increasingly nicely.
> > * Normalized Torperf (Torperf relative to non-tor speeds) increases
> glacially.
> > * There's statistical evidence that an injection of advertised
> > bandwidth would reliably improve Torperf performance.
> >
> > For non-policy makers, I think the main contribution I am offering is
> > a list of the various Tor growth rates (page 4, table 2)
>
> I've noticed something relevant to current discussion about Tor use.
>
> | Figure 8: Network Utilization Ratio (NUR) falls into three distinct
> | stages. Within each stage the fitted line is essentially flat. What
> | happened on 2013-10-08 and 2014-06-06!? The only thing we see is
> | that on 2014-06-05 (one day prior) the EFF began their Tor Challenge.
>
> Silk Road was taken down by the FBI on 2014-10-02.[0] The site still
> loaded, however, showing a "This Hidden Site Has Been Seized" message.
> And so it probably took a few days for most users to get the news.
>
> Also, contemplating Figure 8, there may be a discontinuity at about July
> 2013, when they took down Freedom Hosting.[1]
>
> I'm not aware of anything major in May-June of this year.
>
> [0]
> https://lists.torproject.org/pipermail/tor-talk/2013-October/030268.html
> [1] http://www.wired.com/2013/09/freedom-hosting-fbi/
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