[tor-dev] Using Traceroute for AS-Path prediction

[Simon Koch]

I am a student at the saarland university and currently workin on my 
bachelor thesis concerning AS-path prediction using traceroute.
I want to correlate open-source BGP data and corresponding traceroute 
measurements. In the end I want to argue whether or not traceroute
can be valid tool for live as-path prediction based on the matching and 
representation of changes in the respective (AS-)routes over time.

I already did a preliminary measurement during which I gathered 2 month 
worth of traceroute information to different tor-nodes and correlated 
them
  with the BGP data available at RIPE-RIS. It turned out, that routes 
predominantly matched and that a high percentage of bgp route
changes were also present in traceroute routes. Though only a smaller 
number of traceroute route changes were present in bgp routes.
This leads to the assumption that traceroute might be a good as-path 
measurement-tool, as it would be quite unlikely that BGP AS Paths would
match AS paths derived from traceroute measurements if traceroute could 
not reliable measure them.
This information was only inferred from only one measurement point, 
though.

As this topic may also be of interrest to tor I was wondering if anyone 
had some opionions on the general idea or knew
some papers/researcher which are on the same track. I already read:
* Towards an Accurate AS-Level Traceroute Tool
* Quantifying the Pitfalls of Traceroute in AS Connectivity
* Inferring AS-level Internet Topology from Router-Level Path Traces
* A Study on Traceroute Potential in Revealing the Internet AS-Level 
Topology
* Mixing Biases: Structure Changes in the AS Topology Evolution
but I have the nagging feeling that there should be more.
Further I am looking for a way to establish more measurement points to 
ensure a diversity in the data collection. Those points have to be in 
AS-peers
of either the route-views project (zebra routers) or RIPE-RIS so I can 
also access the corresponding MRT-Data. I figured that traceroute.org 
Looking Glass
may provide a way of doing so, but I am afraid that the overlap of 
Looking Glass servers and public BGP-peers is very small. Any idea on 
how
to establish diverse measurementpoints (maybe volunteers) would be 
greatly appreciated.

Regards,

Simon