[or-cvs] r20533: {} Commit some helper scripts to work towards an estimation of (in torflow/trunk/NetworkScanners/BwAuthority: . extras)

[mikeperry at seul.org]

Author: mikeperry
Date: 2009-09-11 22:53:45 -0400 (Fri, 11 Sep 2009)
New Revision: 20533

Added:
   torflow/trunk/NetworkScanners/BwAuthority/extras/
   torflow/trunk/NetworkScanners/BwAuthority/extras/parseplatform.py
   torflow/trunk/NetworkScanners/BwAuthority/extras/platforms.csv
Log:

Commit some helper scripts to work towards an estimation of
the 0.2.1 upgrade ratio (aka "beta").



Added: torflow/trunk/NetworkScanners/BwAuthority/extras/parseplatform.py
===================================================================
--- torflow/trunk/NetworkScanners/BwAuthority/extras/parseplatform.py	                        (rev 0)
+++ torflow/trunk/NetworkScanners/BwAuthority/extras/parseplatform.py	2009-09-12 02:53:45 UTC (rev 20533)
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+#!/usr/bin/python
+
+# Parses metrics.git/out/dirarch/platforms.csv and estimates logistic
+# distribution parameters based on this data.
+
+import time
+import math
+
+f = open("platforms.csv", "r")
+f.readline()
+
+upgrade_table = {}
+t0 = 0
+for l in f.readlines():
+  v = l.split(",")
+  if v[5] == "NA" or int(v[5]) == 0: continue
+  up = (float(v[5])+float(v[6])+float(v[7]))/float(v[8])
+  t = time.mktime(time.strptime(v[0], "%Y-%m-%d"))
+  if t0 == 0: t0 = t
+  upgrade_table[t-t0] = up
+
+
+
+# From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_distribution#Quantile_function
+# Q(p) = u + s*ln(p/(1-p))
+# We want to solve for u and s. So we want a linear regression to solve:
+# time = u + s*ln(upgrade_rate/(1-upgrade_rate))
+
+# http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simple_linear_regression#Fitting_the_regression_line
+# So u=> Alpha; s=>Beta and x=>ln(upgrade_rate/(1-upgrade_rate))
+# and time => y
+
+y = {}
+for t in upgrade_table.iterkeys():
+  x = math.log(upgrade_table[t]/(1.0-upgrade_table[t]))
+  y[x] = t
+
+
+y_ = sum(y.itervalues())/len(y)
+x_ = sum(y.iterkeys())/len(y)
+
+xy__ = sum(map(lambda x: x*y[x], y.iterkeys()))/len(y)
+
+x2_ = sum(map(lambda x: x*x, y.iterkeys()))/len(y)
+
+s = Beta = (xy__ - x_*y_)/(x2_ - x_*x_)
+
+u = Alpha = y_ - Beta*x_
+
+
+print "s="+str(s)+", u="+str(u)
+
+print "Estimate 50% upgrade at: "+time.ctime(t0+u)


Property changes on: torflow/trunk/NetworkScanners/BwAuthority/extras/parseplatform.py
___________________________________________________________________
Added: svn:executable
   + *

Added: torflow/trunk/NetworkScanners/BwAuthority/extras/platforms.csv
===================================================================
--- torflow/trunk/NetworkScanners/BwAuthority/extras/platforms.csv	                        (rev 0)
+++ torflow/trunk/NetworkScanners/BwAuthority/extras/platforms.csv	2009-09-12 02:53:45 UTC (rev 20533)
@@ -0,0 +1,1268 @@
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