[tor-bugs] #3338 [Analysis]: Why do our user graphs have these huge spikes?

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#3338: Why do our user graphs have these huge spikes?
----------------------+-----------------------------------------------------
 Reporter:  arma      |          Owner:     
     Type:  task      |         Status:  new
 Priority:  normal    |      Milestone:     
Component:  Analysis  |        Version:     
 Keywords:            |         Parent:     
   Points:            |   Actualpoints:     
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Comment(by arma):

 Replying to [comment:6 karsten]:
 > I had a look at the data, and it seems that our estimate of the fraction
 of directory bytes that the directory mirrors which reported directory
 requests is slightly broken.  The reported request numbers are quite
 stable, but every time when there's a peak in the user number, our
 estimate of observed directory bytes drops below 10 %.  I just attached a
 graph which shows this problem, the graph code is in the metrics-tasks
 repository.

 Nice!

 > How do we fix this?  We should make more relays upgrade to 0.2.2.x when
 they report directory requests by default.  Or we should find a better
 estimate for directory bytes than our current one.

 This one I'm confused by.
 {{{
 #!/usr/bin/perl
 for(<>) {
   if (/^r .* (\d+)$/) {
     $dirport = $1;
   } elsif (/^v Tor (.*?)[- ]/) {
     $versionstring = $1;
   } elsif ($dirport != 0 and /^w Bandwidth=(.*)/) {
     $bandwidth = $1;
     if ($versionstring le "0.2.2.0") {
       print "$versionstring (old): $bandwidth\n";
       $old += $bandwidth;
     } else {
       print "$versionstring: $bandwidth\n";
       $new += $bandwidth;
     }
   }
 }

 print "Total old is $old, total new is $new\n";
 }}}
 Piping my cached-consensus file into that script yields
 {{{
 Total old is 1419334, total new is 2603078
 }}}

 So about 65% of the directory mirrors by weight are running 0.2.2 already.

 I guess you mean 0.2.3? In which case only 358701/(358701+3663711)= 9% are
 running it.

-- 
Ticket URL: <https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/3338#comment:7>
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