[metrics-bugs] #18167 [Metrics/Statistics]: Don't trust "bridge-ips" blindly for user number estimates

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#18167: Don't trust "bridge-ips" blindly for user number estimates
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 Reporter:  karsten             |          Owner:  metrics-team
     Type:  defect              |         Status:  needs_review
 Priority:  Medium              |      Milestone:
Component:  Metrics/Statistics  |        Version:
 Severity:  Major               |     Resolution:
 Keywords:  meek, metrics-2018  |  Actual Points:
Parent ID:                      |         Points:
 Reviewer:                      |        Sponsor:
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Changes (by karsten):

 * status:  assigned => needs_review


Comment:

 Let's finally make this fix. Last time I suggested to wait for #8786 and
 #18203. It turns out that we're not going to do #8786, and I just added a
 patch to #18203 to do it together with this fix.

 I reprocessed past Decembers and made a comparison graph to the currently
 deployed code:

 [[Image(bridge-users-2020-03-28.png, 700px)]]

 This graph shows that total numbers and numbers by transport (here: meek)
 stay the same. But some numbers by country change, with user numbers from
 China going up most and user numbers from Turkey going down most. The
 numbers in red are more likely to be correct.

 Please review [https://gitweb.torproject.org/user/karsten/metrics-
 web.git/commit/?h=tasks-18167-and-18203&id=31868eed8f65b36f7c316364bb19750014beb49a
 commit 31868ee in my tasks-18167-and-18203 branch].

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Ticket URL: <https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/18167#comment:10>
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