[metrics-bugs] #28555 [Metrics/Analysis]: Assess methodology for modern privcount Tor user counts

[Tor Bug Tracker & Wiki]

#28555: Assess methodology for modern privcount Tor user counts
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     Reporter:  arma              |      Owner:  metrics-team
         Type:  task              |     Status:  new
     Priority:  Medium            |  Milestone:
    Component:  Metrics/Analysis  |    Version:
     Severity:  Normal            |   Keywords:
Actual Points:                    |  Parent ID:
       Points:                    |   Reviewer:
      Sponsor:  Sponsor19         |
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 With our traditional user count methods, based on extrapolating from
 consensus fetch counts -- and assuming each client is online all day -- we
 see approximately 2 million daily users.

 The IMC 2018 paper estimates closer to 8 million daily users:
 https://www.ohmygodel.com/publications/tor-usage-imc18.pdf

 Understanding how many users we have is a critical building block for
 Isabela's "user retention" cycle. It also turns out to really impact how
 other large organizations view us: from Mozilla's perspective, 8 million
 daily users is wildly more attractive than 2 million daily users, and
 similarly with larger numbers we're in a position to negotiate funding for
 a spot in the search box. And third, understanding our user base helps us
 understand the capacity of the Tor network, by making us better able to
 predict how Tor would handle an influx of n million new users (from Brave,
 from Firefox private browsing mode, or from other apps that integrate Tor
 and then become popular).

 We should figure out what we think about this paper's counting
 methodology, and either (1) identify follow-up research questions that we
 need to investigate to convince ourselves that this newer number is more
 right, or (2) decide that the methodology is solid, in which case we
 should (a) tell the world about it in a blog post or similar, (b) update
 our various documentation and metrics graphs, and (c) figure out a way to
 deploy ongoing user count measurements with this new approach.

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Ticket URL: <https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/28555>
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