[metrics-bugs] #21014 [Obfuscation/Censorship analysis]: Turkey blocking of direct connections, 2016-12-12

[Tor Bug Tracker & Wiki]

#21014: Turkey blocking of direct connections, 2016-12-12
---------------------------------------------+-----------------------------
 Reporter:  mrphs                            |          Owner:  metrics-
                                             |  team
     Type:  task                             |         Status:  closed
 Priority:  Medium                           |      Milestone:
Component:  Obfuscation/Censorship analysis  |        Version:
 Severity:  Normal                           |     Resolution:  wontfix
 Keywords:  censorship block tr Turkey UX    |  Actual Points:
Parent ID:                                   |         Points:
 Reviewer:                                   |        Sponsor:
---------------------------------------------+-----------------------------

Comment (by dcf):

 Replying to [comment:19 dcf]:
 > 19 months later, there's a very similar pattern in relay users from
 Turkey, jumping from 5k to 30k in about a day, on 2018-06-09. Is it
 another blocking event that's resulting in an illusory increase in the
 number of users?

 Here are some OONI graphs (update of comment:4). Unfortunately there are
 no reports from the past two months, when the apparent big increase in
 users began.

 [[Image(tr-tor-20180704.png)]]

 [[Image(tr-tor-asns-20180704.png)]]

 {{{
 # ooni-sync -xz -directory tr probe_cc=TR since=2016-06-01
 test_name=vanilla_tor
 # xz -dc tr/*.json.xz | jq -r
 '[.test_start_time,.test_keys.success,.probe_cc,.probe_asn,.test_runtime]|@csv'
 > tr.csv

 library(ggplot2)
 end.date <- as.POSIXct("2018-07-05", tz="GMT")
 x <- read.csv("tr.csv", header=F, col.names=c("test_start_time",
 "success", "probe_cc", "probe_asn", "test_runtime"),
 stringsAsFactors=FALSE)
 x$test_start_time <- as.POSIXct(x$test_start_time, tz="GMT")
 x$success <- as.logical(x$success)
 x[is.na(x$success), ]$success <- "NA"

 p <- ggplot(x, aes(test_start_time, probe_asn, color=success))
 p <- p + geom_point(alpha=0.5)
 p <- p + scale_color_manual(values=c("TRUE"="blue", "FALSE"="red",
 "NA"="gray"))
 p <- p + scale_x_datetime(limits=c(min(x$test_start_time), end.date),
 date_breaks="4 months", date_minor_breaks="1 month")
 p <- p + ggtitle("bootstrap success in Turkey")
 p <- p + theme_minimal()
 p <- p + theme(legend.position="top")
 filename <- sprintf("tr-tor-asns-%s.png", strftime(end.date, "%Y%m%d"))
 ggsave(filename, p, width=5, height=2.5, dpi=120)

 p <- ggplot(x, aes(test_start_time, ymin=0, ymax=test_runtime,
 color=success))
 p <- p + geom_linerange(size=0.5, alpha=0.8, stat="identity")
 p <- p + scale_color_manual(values=c("TRUE"="blue", "FALSE"="red",
 "NA"="gray"))
 p <- p + scale_x_datetime(limits=c(min(x$test_start_time), end.date),
 date_breaks="4 months", date_minor_breaks="1 month")
 p <- p + ggtitle("time to bootstrap Tor in Turkey")
 p <- p + theme_minimal()
 p <- p + theme(legend.position="top")
 filename <- sprintf("tr-tor-%s.png", strftime(end.date, "%Y%m%d"))
 ggsave(filename, p, width=5, height=3, dpi=120)
 }}}

--
Ticket URL: <https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/21014#comment:20>
Tor Bug Tracker & Wiki <https://trac.torproject.org/>
The Tor Project: anonymity online